Counterfactual thought experiments in world politics : logical, methodological, and psychological perspectives
Title:
Counterfactual thought experiments in world politics : logical, methodological, and psychological perspectives
JLCTITLE245:
edited by Philip E. Tetlock and Aaron Belkin.
Publication Information:
Princeton, N.J. : Princeton University Press, c1996.
Physical Description:
x, 344 p. : ill. ; 25 cm.
ISBN:
9780691027920
9780691027913
Bibliography Note:
Includes bibliographical references (p. [317]-335) and index.
Contents:
1. Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives / Philip E. Tetlock and Aaron Belkin -- 2. Causes and Counterfactuals in Social Science: Exploring an Analogy between Cellular Automata and Historical Processes / James D. Fearon -- 3. Counterfactual Reasoning in Western Studies of Soviet Politics and Foreign Relations / George W. Breslauer -- 4. Confronting Hitler and Its Consequences / Yuen Foong Khong -- 5. Back to the Past: Counterfactuals and the Cuban Missile Crisis / Richard Ned Lebow and Janice Gross Stein -- 6. Counterfactual Reasoning in Motivational Analysis: U.S. Policy toward Iran / Richard K. Herrmann and Michael P. Fischerkeller -- 7. Counterfactuals about War and Its Absence / Bruce Russett -- 8. Using Counterfactuals in Historical Analysis: Theories of Revolution / Edgar Kiser and Margaret Levi -- 9. Counterfactuals and International Affairs: Some Insights from Game Theory / Bruce Bueno de Mesquita -- 10. Off-the-Path Behavior: A Game-Theoretic Approach to Counterfactuals and Its Implications for Political and Historical Analysis / Barry R. Weingast -- 11. Rerunning History: Counterfactual Simulation in World Politics / Lars-Erik Cederman -- 12. Counterfactuals, Past and Future / Steven Weber -- Commentary 1: Conceptual Blending and Counterfactual Argument in the Social and Behavioral Sciences / Mark Turner -- Commentary 2: Psychological Biases in Counterfactual Thought Experiments / James M. Olson, Neal J. Roese and Ronald J. Deibert -- Commentary 3: Counterfactual Inferences as Instances of Statistical Inferences / Robyn M. Dawes -- Commentary 4: Counterfactuals, Causation, and Complexity / Robert Jervis.